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3rd Quarter Client Note – Stay Away from the Rocket Science

The first half stock market rally stalled in the 3rd quarter. The S&P 500 (Total Return) Index fell 3.27%, reducing its YTD return to 13.07%. Overall, value stocks continue to underperform. But lost less (1.91%) than growth stocks in the quarter. Overseas, developed market stocks lost 3.8%, while emerging markets fell 1.54% Commodities gained 4.71% […]

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4th Quarter Client Note – Out with the Old. In with Secure Act 2.0

Well, that was fun. It wasn’t quite the worst ever year for stocks. Thank goodness for that. But bonds had one of (if not) their worst years ever. Consequently, the role that bonds usually play in a portfolio – buffering losses in the occasional bad years for stocks – didn’t happen – and even balanced

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Dealing with the Russian Invasion of Ukraine

On Wednesday night, Russian Federation President Vladimir Putin followed through on his threat to invade his neighbor, the sovereign nation of Ukraine. It is difficult to know his actual motivations and what his plan is. But this is obviously an affront to the post-WW War II international order. And a tragedy for the Ukrainian people.

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3rd Quarter Client Note – COVID and Politics, a Potent Cocktail

Welcome to whiplash land. The S&P 500 (Total Return) Index gained 8.93% in the quarter and 5.57% year-to-date. On August 18, the index reached a record high for the first time since the COVID-19 bear market began on February 19. In just 126 trading days, the fastest bear market recovery on record, the market erased

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Preparing for Short-Term Election Volatility

What’s better for investors, Republican Presidents or Democrat Presidents? It’s a trick question. First, because in general, over the long run, it doesn’t matter. While some data correlates Democratic administrations with stronger markets since the end of World War II, there is no evidence of a cause and effect relationship. And this nifty interactive exhibit

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Book Review: The Deficit Myth, Modern Monetary Theory and the Birth of the People’s Economy, Stephanie Kelton (Public Affairs, 2020)

“Trillions of dollars of debt! This is what Republicans stand for?” Kentucky Senator Rand Paul, reacting to his own party’s proposed stimulus legislation in July. “Now is not the time to worry about shrinking the deficit.” Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin, on September 15 2020. “If you elect me, your taxes are going to be raised.”

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