What’s better for investors, Republican Presidents or Democrat Presidents? It’s a trick question. First, because in general, over the long run, it doesn’t matter. While some data correlates Democratic administrations with stronger markets since the end of World War II, there is no evidence of a cause and effect relationship. And this nifty interactive exhibit […]
Preparing for Short-Term Election Volatility Read More »
The US stock market just had its best quarter in more than 20 years. (Yes, you heard that right.) Of course, that was on the heels of one of the scariest quarters in history, fueled by the Coronavirus pandemic reaching US shores in February. At its worst, on March 23, the S&P 500 was down
2nd Quarter Client Note Read More »
There are decades when nothing happens; and there are weeks when decades happen. I’m pretty sure that’s the first time I have quoted Vladimir Lenin in a client note. And probably the last. A great deal has indeed happened since my first post on the coronavirus pandemic, when the implications were just beginning to emerge. The public health implications
1st Quarter Client Note – Covid-19 Edition Read More »
After a fitful bout of volatility during the month of August, including an 800 point one-day drop in the Dow Jones Industrial Average, the S&P 500 (Total Return) Index turned in a respectable 1.70% gain for the quarter. That brought the year-to-date return to an extraordinary 20.55%. (For context, the most recent 12-month return, which
3rd Quarter Client Note Read More »
A recent column entitled, Survivor Bias: Why Successful Value Investors Live Longer, mused on the apparent longevity of legendary value investors Charlie Munger and Warren Buffett. Today’s long suffering value investors, looking for a silver lining in the decade plus underperformance of value stocks, may find one in Munger’s quip that “professors, judges and value
Value Investing and Skiing May be The Key to Living Longer Read More »
By almost any measure, the past decade has been one of the best 10-year periods in history for the US stock market. Quarter after quarter, with just a few hiccups, the market has climbed steadily since the market bottomed in March of 2009. This past quarter was no exception, with the S&P 500 (total return)
2nd Quarter Client Note – The Raging Bull Read More »
There is a saying about the weather here in Colorado: If you don’t like it, just wait a minute. When it comes to the stock market, one quarter is the equivalent of about a minute’s worth of weather. The S&P 500 (total return) Index rose 13.65% in the first quarter; the largest first quarter gain
1st Quarter Client Note – Just Wait a Minute Read More »
If you can keep your head when all about you are losing theirs… Rudyard Kipling, from the poem If, circa 1895 We will forever be debating the causes of the 2008 financial crisis and the government’s attempts to minimize its effects. But the worst modern bear market other than the one caused by the Great
Celebrating the Ten-Year Anniversary of the Market Bottom Read More »
The S & P 500 (total return) Index fell 13.52% in the 4th quarter, bringing the benchmark index to a loss for the year of 4.38%. This, following a best-quarter-in-five-years gain of 7.2% in the 3rd quarter. The negative 9.03% in December was the 11th worst month in the past 50 years. The three worst
4th Quarter Client Note – Is Past Ever Prologue? Read More »
The S & P 500 (total return) Index experienced its best quarter in five years, rising 7.2%. (Of course, things happen so fast, that as of this writing the S&P 500 has fallen almost 4.5% in the first nine days of the third quarter; led largely by falling technology stocks and possibly attributed to the
3rd Quarter Client Note – Yield Curve Ball Read More »
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